“21 century  climate change could see the ranges of many African bird species moving beyond the boundaries of the sites established for their protection, raising the spectre of even higher extinction rates than those currently projected.

However, some sites are also likely to gain species whose ranges currently lie beyond the site’s borders.  New research has examined the balance between these effects, and shows that under projected climate change over the next century, the African IBA network will be an essential tool for conserving the region’s breeding species.

It remains uncertain to what extent species will be able to shift their ranges in response to changing climate.  The range shifts required to reach IBA’s with newly suitable climate are substantial in minority of cases (up to 6000km), but are far smaller for the majority of species.  The average distance is 136km, meaning that species will have to move by only 2km per year by 2085 on average.”

Source: BirdLife International

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